Biomarkers of liver fibrosis: prospective comparison of multimodal magnetic resonance, serum algorithms and transient elastography
SCANDINAVIAN JOURNAL OF GASTROENTEROLOGY
Authors: Forsgren, Mikael F.; Nasr, Patrik; Karlsson, Markus; Dahlstrom, Nils; Noren, Bengt; Ignatova, Simone; Sinkus, Ralph; Cedersund, Gunnar; Leinhard, Olof Dahlqvist; Ekstedt, Mattias; Kechagias, Stergios; Lundberg, Peter
Abstract
Background and aims Accurate biomarkers for quantifying liver fibrosis are important for clinical practice and trial end-points. We compared the diagnostic performance of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), including gadoxetate-enhanced MRI and(31)P-MR spectroscopy, with fibrosis stage and serum fibrosis algorithms in a clinical setting. Also, in a subset of patients, MR- and transient elastography (MRE and TE) was evaluated when available. Methods Patients were recruited prospectively if they were scheduled to undergo liver biopsy on a clinical indication due to elevated liver enzyme levels without decompensated cirrhosis. Within a month of the clinical work-up, an MR-examination and liver needle biopsy were performed on the same day. Based on late-phase gadoxetate-enhanced MRI, a mathematical model calculated hepatobiliary function (relating to OATP1 and MRP2). The hepatocyte gadoxetate uptake rate (K-Hep) and the normalised liver-to-spleen contrast ratio (LSC_N10) were also calculated. Nine serum fibrosis algorithms were investigated (GUCI, King's Score, APRI, FIB-4, Lok-Index, NIKEI, NASH-CRN regression score, Forns' score, and NAFLD-fibrosis score). Results The diagnostic performance (AUROC) for identification of significant fibrosis (F2-4) was 0.78, 0.80, 0.69, and 0.78 for MRE, TE, LSC_N10, and GUCI, respectively. For the identification of advanced fibrosis (F3-4), the AUROCs were 0.93, 0.84, 0.81, and 0.82 respectively. Conclusion MRE and TE were superior for non-invasive identification of significant fibrosis. Serum fibrosis algorithms developed for specific liver diseases are applicable in this cohort of diverse liver diseases aetiologies. Gadoxetate-MRI was sufficiently sensitive to detect the low function losses associated with fibrosis. None was able to efficiently distinguish between stages within the low fibrosis stages.Lay summary Excessive accumulation of scar tissue, fibrosis, in the liver is an important aspect in chronic liver disease. To replace the invasive needle biopsy, we have explored non-invasive methods to assess liver fibrosis. In our study we found that elastographic methods, which assess the mechanical properties of the liver, are superior in assessing fibrosis in a clinical setting. Of interest from a clinical trial point-of-view, none of the tested methods was sufficiently accurate to distinguish between adjacent moderate fibrosis stages.
Assessment of Inter-Model Variability in Meteorological Drought Characteristics Using CMIP5 GCMs over South Korea
KSCE JOURNAL OF CIVIL ENGINEERING
Authors: Sung, Jang Hyun; Park, Junehyeong; Jeon, Jong-June; Seo, Seung Beom
Abstract
Although many studies have sought to characterize future meteorological droughts, a few efforts have been done for quantifying the uncertainty, inter-model variability, arises from global circulation models (GCM) ensemble. A clear understanding of the uncertainty in multiple GCMs should be preceded before future meteorological droughts are projected. Therefore, this study evaluates the uncertainty in future meteorological drought characteristics that are induced by GCM ensemble using the custom measure "the degree of GCM spreading". Future meteorological drought indices, the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), were computed to five different time scales: 3, 6, 9, 12 and 24 months using statistically downscaled 28 GCMs under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 at 60 weather stations in South Korea. The frequency, duration, and severity of drought events were estimated for three different future periods; F1 (2010-2039), F2 (2040-2069), and F3 (2070-2099). It was found that the uncertainty increases as the time scale lengthens regardless of a choice of drought indices or RCP scenarios. It also turned out that the SPI exhibits larger uncertainty rather than the SPEI, because temperature data exhibit a relatively much smaller variability comparing to precipitation data. Moreover, there was a shift of regions having larger values of the increasing rate between F1 and F2, which is shift from the north-western to southern region of South Korea.