Partisan differences in physical distancing are linked to health outcomes during the COVID-19 pandemic
NATURE HUMAN BEHAVIOUR
Authors: Gollwitzer, Anton; Martel, Cameron; Brady, William J.; Parnamets, Philip; Freedman, Isaac G.; Knowles, Eric D.; Van Bavel, Jay J.
Abstract
Numerous polls suggest that COVID-19 is a profoundly partisan issue in the United States. Using the geotracking data of 15 million smartphones per day, we found that US counties that voted for Donald Trump (Republican) over Hillary Clinton (Democrat) in the 2016 presidential election exhibited 14% less physical distancing between March and May 2020. Partisanship was more strongly associated with physical distancing than numerous other factors, including counties' COVID-19 cases, population density, median income, and racial and age demographics. Contrary to our predictions, the observed partisan gap strengthened over time and remained when stay-at-home orders were active. Additionally, county-level consumption of conservative media (Fox News) was related to reduced physical distancing. Finally, the observed partisan differences in distancing were associated with subsequently higher COVID-19 infection and fatality growth rates in pro-Trump counties. Taken together, these data suggest that US citizens' responses to COVID-19 are subject to a deep-and consequential-partisan divide. Gollwitzer et al. use smartphone mobility tracking to show that US county support for Trump in 2016 was associated with a lower reduction in mobility in March-May 2020, which in turn was associated with higher COVID-19 infection and fatality growth rates in pro-Trump counties.
The Spanish electoral cycle of 2019: a tale of two countries
WEST EUROPEAN POLITICS
Authors: Rodon, Toni
Abstract
In 2019 alone, Spanish citizens went to the polls at least four times - two general elections, European elections, local elections and, for some, regional elections. Moreover, in the 2016-19 legislature, the country witnessed a successful vote of no confidence that replaced a Conservative prime minister with a Socialist one; experienced an important constitutional crisis over the 2017 referendum on Catalan independence; observed the emergence for the first time of a viable far-right party; and ended with the first coalition government in the modern democratic history. The November 2019 election, the last in this long electoral cycle, left a fragmented and polarized political landscape and a left-wing cabinet - PSOE and Podemos - that does not have a majority in the chamber. This article presents the background, the results of the different elections and discusses how and why Spanish politics experienced a radical transformation likely to have an impact in the next years.