A simulation model to estimate the risk of transfusion-transmitted arboviral infection
TRANSFUSION AND APHERESIS SCIENCE
Authors: Shang, Guifang; Biggerstaff, Brad J.; Richardson, Alice M.; Gahan, Michelle E.; Lidbury, Brett A.
Abstract
Background: The arboviruses West Nile virus (WNV), dengue virus (DENV) and Ross River virus (RRV) have been demonstrated to be blood transfusion-transmissible. A model to estimate the risk of WNV to the blood supply using a Monte Carlo approach has been developed and also applied to Chikungunya virus. Also, a probabilistic model was developed to assess the risk of DENV to blood safety, which was later adapted to RRV. To address efficacy and limitations within each model we present a hybrid model that promises improved accuracy, and is broadly applicable to assess the risk of arboviral transmission by blood transfusion. Material and methods: Data were drawn from the Cairns Public Health Unit (Australia) and published literature. Based on the published models and using R code, a novel 'combined' model was developed and validated against the BP model using sensitivity testing. Results: The mean risk per 10,000 of the combined model is 0.98 with a range from 0.79 to 1.25, while the maximum risk was 4.45 ranging from 2.62 to 7.67 respectively. These parameters for the BP model were 1.20 ranging from 0.84 to 1.55, and 2.86 ranging from 1.33 to 5.23 respectively. Conclusion: The combined simulation model is simple and robust. We propose it can be applied as a 'generic' arbovirus model to assess the risk from known or novel arboviral threats to the blood supply. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
FEATURES EXTRACTION FROM RESPIRATION RATE VARIABILITY SIGNALS FOR APNEA PREDICTION
2015 MEDICAL TECHNOLOGIES NATIONAL CONFERENCE (TIPTEKNO)
Authors: Budak, Erdem Inanc; Beytar, Faruk; Erogul, Osman
Abstract
Sleep can be expressed as an active process that circadian rhythm is entegrated with nervous system. Sleep disorders may appear during the sleep. Apnea, which is defined as the respiration stops more than 10 seconds during sleep, is the most important problem among the sleep disorders. In this study, prediction of apnea has been investigated statistically using features extracted from respiratory rate variability signals derived from respiratory signals recorded by polysomnography device during sleep. In order to detection of inspiration peaks in respiration signals taken by nasal cannula, Teager Energy Operators (TEO), threshold and multiple threshold algorithms have been used. The multiple threshold algorithm which gives the best results for the calculation of duration between peaks in respiration rate variability (RRV) signal. By using a GUI (Graphical User Interface) designed by MATLAB platform, 3 patients' all nasal cannula signals each of which contains 30 seconds duration epochs have been examined. Maximum, minimum and mean respiration rates, means, variances and standard deviations have been calculated for each epohcs of every patients. According to results, mean respiration rate and mean RRV calculated over the five epochs before the apnea have been found statistically important. As conclusion, these two parameters can be used for the prediction of apnea.