Likelihood-Based Inference for Partially Observed Epidemics on Dynamic Networks
JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN STATISTICAL ASSOCIATION
Authors: Bu, Fan; Aiello, Allison E.; Xu, Jason; Volfovsky, Alexander
Abstract
We propose a generative model and an inference scheme for epidemic processes on dynamic, adaptive contact networks. Network evolution is formulated as a link-Markovian process, which is then coupled to an individual-level stochastic susceptible-infectious-recovered model, to describe the interplay between the dynamics of the disease spread and the contact network underlying the epidemic. A Markov chain Monte Carlo framework is developed for likelihood-based inference from partial epidemic observations, with a novel data augmentation algorithm specifically designed to deal with missing individual recovery times under the dynamic network setting. Through a series of simulation experiments, we demonstrate the validity and flexibility of the model as well as the efficacy and efficiency of the data augmentation inference scheme. The model is also applied to a recent real-world dataset on influenza-like-illness transmission with high-resolution social contact tracking records.for this article are available online.
Vaccines in the United States: a systematic review on history of evolution, regulations, licensing, and future challenges
CLINICAL AND EXPERIMENTAL VACCINE RESEARCH
Authors: Sathyanarayana, Sandeep Divate; Fernandes, Swapnil Dylan; Castelino, Lovely Joylen; Vadakkepushpakath, Anoop Narayanan; Shriram, Ravi Gundadka
Abstract
Vaccines are credited with reducing or effectively eradicating a number of infectious diseases such as smallpox, measles, and diphtheria. Particularly in nations like the United States, where a large number of infectious diseases were prevalent, vaccines proved to be timely interventions. The approval procedure for vaccines in the United States is regulated by the Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research. Vaccine development is often found to be demanding and requires astute knowledge and understanding of recent developments by physicians and researchers to ensure that effective vaccines are made available to the masses with minimum risk. This article aims to illustrate the regulatory scenario with regards to vaccine development and licensure in the United States with a brief look at the origin of vaccines and their regulations in the nation. Also, it details the challenges faced by the United States vaccine industry to remain relevant in today's constantly evolving world.