The Ultra-Short-Term Forecasting of Global Horizonal Irradiance Based on Total Sky Images
REMOTE SENSING
Authors: Jiang, Junxia; Lv, Qingquan; Gao, Xiaoqing
Abstract
Solar photovoltaics (PV) has advanced at an unprecedented rate and the global cumulative installed PV capacity is growing exponentially. However, the ability to forecast PV power remains a key technical challenge due to the variability and uncertainty of solar irradiance resulting from the changes of clouds. Ground-based remote sensing with high temporal and spatial resolution may have potential for solar irradiation forecasting, especially under cloudy conditions. To this end, we established two ultra-short-term forecasting models of global horizonal irradiance (GHI) using Ternary Linear Regression (TLR) and Back Propagation Neural Network (BPN), respectively, based on the observation of a ground-based sky imager (TSI-880, Total Sky Imager) and a radiometer at a PV plant in Dunhuang, China. Sky images taken every 1 min (minute) were processed to determine the distribution of clouds with different optical depths (thick, thin) for generating a two-dimensional cloud map. To obtain the forecasted cloud map, the Particle Image Velocity (PIV) method was applied to the two consecutive images and the cloud map was advected to the future. Further, different types of cloud fraction combined with clear sky index derived from the GHI of clear sky conditions were used as the inputs of the two forecasting models. Limited validation on 4 partly cloudy days showed that the average relative root mean square error (rRMSE) of the 4 days ranged from 5% to 36% based on the TLR model and ranged from 12% to 32% based on the BPN model. The forecasting performance of the BPN model was better than the TLR model and the forecasting errors increased with the increase in lead time.
Effect of the Swirl Intensity of Pilot Inner Swirler on the Combustion Stability of a Lean Staged Injector With a Prefilm Atomizer
JOURNAL OF ENGINEERING FOR GAS TURBINES AND POWER-TRANSACTIONS OF THE ASME
Authors: Yang, Jinhu; Liu, Cunxi; Liu, Fuqiang; Mu, Yong; Xu, Gang
Abstract
Lean staged combustion can reduce the NO(x)emissions by prevaporizing and premixing fuel with air, which is considered the state-of-the-art solution strategy in achieving low emission in aeronautical combustors. However, lean premixed combustion is subjected to combustion stability problems, which restrict the ground and altitude operation limits of the commercial engine. In this work, the effect of the swirl intensity of pilot inner swirler on combustion stability of a lean staged injector is experimentally and numerically studied. The lean staged injector is piloted by a dual swirler prefilm atomizer. The swirl intensity of the pilot inner swirler is varied by parameterizing the vane angle as +20 deg, -20 deg, and -35 deg, with -20 deg selected as the baseline with a counterswirling design. A single sector model combustor is designed, and the nonreacting flow field and fuel concentration distributions are measured by particle image velocimetry (PIV) and kerosene planar laser induced fluorescence (kerosene-PLIF) techniques. The alteration of swirl direction from counterswirling to coswirling induces a negligible effect on flow structures, but the spray distribution changes from a solid pattern to a hollow pattern. The increase in the pilot inner swirl intensity causes a shrunk cyclone recirculation zone (CRZ) and a reduction of kerosene concentration in the central region. The influences of the pilot inner swirler angle on combustion stability are evaluated. The ignition and lean blow-out (LBO) results show that the baseline injector exhibits excellent combustion stability, while the coswirling design holds the highest ignition and LBO fuel-air ratio (FAR). In order to find out the physical mechanisms dominating the ignition and LBO processes, nonreacting numerical simulations are conducted to provide information regarding the flow structures and kerosene concentrations at ignition limits. Moreover, the ignition sequences are redefined as the radial flame propagation phase, the axial flame propagation phase, and the flame stabilization phase. The comparison of kerosene concentration along the radial and axial propagation routes concludes that the fuel enrichment in the two processes improves the ignition performance. On the other hand, the Karlovitz number of flame anchoring points in the flame rooting region is calculated to evaluate the flame stabilization characteristics. The results indicate that promoting the number of flame anchoring points and their radial range benefits the LBO performance.